Expected Value

Expected value is the average value of one ticket over many identical rounds. It is not a promise about one draw.

Per-ticket EV

Let n be tickets sold, p the ticket price, d donations, and f = 0.01 the ticket fee. Ticket revenue enters the prize pool after the fee; donations enter the prize pool directly.

pool	`P = n * p * (1 - f) + d`
EV per ticket	`EV = P / n`
edge	`(EV - p) / p`

Without donations, the 1% fee makes EV slightly below ticket price. Donations can cover that fee and push the round positive-EV.

EVL

A round is positive-EV when donations more than offset the 1% ticket fee. In the UI, that is the condition behind the EVL marker. The credential is a record that the wallet participated in a positive-EV round; it is not a return guarantee.

Variance

The tiers make individual outcomes noisy. A Grand prize ticket can pay far more than a Second decile ticket, and most tickets still lose. EV tells you the average value across many independent draws, not what one ticket will do today.

Try it

The simulator lets you change ticket count, ticket price, donations, and your ticket holdings to see EV, odds, and tier payouts update live; The math gives the formulas behind every panel.